Wave, Semi-Wave or Something Else?

Source: www.realclearpolitics.com · Section: politics · Bias: Center-Left · Published: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 20:26:53 GMT

The central question at this point in the 2026 midterm congressional election is not whether the voters will swing against the Republicans, but by how much. Large swings can result in wave elections. The recent midterms considered to be waves (1994, 2006, 2010) led to gains by the out party of at least 30 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate. In 2018, the Republicans during Trump's ﬁrst term lost 40 House seats but gained two Senate seats. It is rightly not remembered as a full wave, so let's call it a semi-wave.

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